Three wins in a row
Training 1335 minutesoverconfidence after success
Three resales in a row each make $40. The market feels predictable. Now you are offered a $900 batch instead of the usual $100 purchase.
Training goal: Do not increase exposure just because of a winning streak
▶ Play this trainingSituation
1. Of your available $1,500, you need $1,000 for upcoming bills. Sales from the new batch are unconfirmed.
- Do not tie up $900 before checking demand
- Buy $900 because three deals worked
- Borrow $400 to keep momentum
2. Your records show the recent sales coincided with a short promotion, now over. The new batch has different quality.
- Assume the same $40 profit on every item
- Stop every future deal
- Test the new batch separately
3. A test item costs $100. A buyer offers $130 subject to inspection; delivery costs $10 and the supplier promises no return if the buyer declines.
- Immediately repeat the order nine times
- Treat $20 as possible profit, not a guarantee
- Count $30 profit and ignore delivery
4. You start a log for future deals. What should you record before seeing the result?
- Forecast, evidence, loss limit and review date
- Only final profit after the sale
- Increase the limit after every win
What you will learn
- A good outcome does not prove a flawless method
- New conditions need a fresh assessment
- Record predictions before outcomes
Your real-life step
For your next money decision, write the expected outcome and one fact that would change your mind.
Questions and answers
Why do three wins offer no guarantee?
A short run may reflect luck or temporary conditions. Check the causes and new constraints.
Is confidence always harmful?
No. It helps when supported by evidence and risk limits. The problem is confidence that exceeds the evidence.
How can I evaluate my forecasts?
Record expectations and reasons beforehand, then compare with outcomes including failures. Do not rewrite the old forecast afterward.
More trainings in this module
- It used to cost $900. So what?
- Leave it as it is?
- My phone is worth more
- Everyone is already going
- Does the queue know best?
- Does a bonus count?
Numbers are illustrative. A game, not financial advice.