Ten winners in your feed
Training 1315 minutessurvivorship bias
Ten videos in a row show small shops with big sales. You are considering $600 of stock. None features a shop that closed.
Training goal: Find the missing outcomes before spending
▶ Play this trainingSituation
1. A course seller says all ten featured owners earn money. The total number of people who started is not given.
- Ask about all launches, including closures
- Treat ten out of ten as a guarantee
- Decide every story is invented
2. An independent list contains 40 launches: 10 still operate and 30 closed. Profit at the active shops is unknown.
- Call your own chance of profit exactly 25%
- Count all 30 closures as proven $600 losses
- Distinguish staying open from making a profit
3. A supplier allows a test of 5 items at $20 each. No orders are confirmed, full stock costs $600, and test items can be sold individually.
- Buy a $200 course instead of testing demand
- Test demand with $100 of stock
- Buy $600 to copy the successful shops
4. Before any order, you plan the test report. What results will you record?
- Every inquiry, sale, refusal and cost
- Only happy customer stories
- Only total revenue
What you will learn
- True stories can still create a biased picture
- An operating business is not necessarily profitable
- Your own limited test adds useful evidence
Your real-life step
For one success story, look for the full set of attempts, selection criteria and cost information.
Questions and answers
What is survivorship bias?
It is drawing conclusions from visible survivors while missing those who dropped out. The visible group may not represent all attempts.
Why can ten successes prove little?
You need the total attempts, selection method and conditions. Even genuine examples offer no personal guarantee.
How can I test without copying someone else’s risk?
Cap spending, set a deadline and define a measurable question. Record refusals, time and costs as well as sales.
More trainings in this module
- It used to cost $900. So what?
- Leave it as it is?
- My phone is worth more
- Everyone is already going
- Does the queue know best?
- Does a bonus count?
Numbers are illustrative. A game, not financial advice.